The crash rule's record
The crash rule is decided once a month, at the month-end close. Each decision is written down here within a few days, as soon as the economic figures for that month are published, with the time it was recorded. Entries are added and never changed, including the ones that turned out wrong. A correction would be a new dated entry.
The S&P 500 is above its 10-month average, so the rule is not acting.
Decided at the month-end close on 30 Oct 2026. Prices to 11 Nov 2026.
The public record
No entries yet. "S&P 500 since" is the index's change from that entry to the latest close, so you can judge each call for yourself.
Before the public record Backtest, hypothetical
What the same rule would have said in the past, worked out afterwards from today's revised economic figures. Nobody acted on these at the time. They are kept apart from the public record above. Between 2005 and 2026 the rule turned red 11 times. By the time it cleared, the S&P 500 was lower 2 times and higher 9 times. A red spell that ends with the market higher is a warning that cost something to follow.
| Month-end | Changed to | Lasted | S&P 500 meanwhile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2026 | Green | still running on 11 Nov 2026 | +5.7% |
| 31 Mar 2026 | Red | until 30 Apr 2026 | +10.4% |
| 30 May 2025 | Green | until 31 Mar 2026 | +10.4% |
| 31 Mar 2025 | Red | until 30 May 2025 | +5.3% |
| 30 Nov 2023 | Green | until 31 Mar 2025 | +22.9% |
| 31 Oct 2023 | Red | until 30 Nov 2023 | +8.9% |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Green | until 31 Oct 2023 | +2.9% |
| 30 Dec 2022 | Red | until 31 Jan 2023 | +6.2% |
| 30 Nov 2022 | Green | until 30 Dec 2022 | −5.9% |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Yellow | until 30 Nov 2022 | +7.8% |
| 31 May 2022 | Red | until 30 Jun 2022 | −8.4% |
| 29 Apr 2022 | Yellow | until 31 May 2022 | 0.0% |
| 31 Mar 2022 | Green | until 29 Apr 2022 | −8.8% |
| 28 Feb 2022 | Yellow | until 31 Mar 2022 | +3.6% |
| 29 May 2020 | Green | until 28 Feb 2022 | +43.7% |
| 28 Feb 2020 | Red | until 29 May 2020 | +3.0% |
| 28 Jun 2019 | Green | until 28 Feb 2020 | +0.4% |
| 31 May 2019 | Yellow | until 28 Jun 2019 | +6.9% |
| 28 Feb 2019 | Green | until 31 May 2019 | −1.2% |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Red | until 28 Feb 2019 | +3.0% |
| 31 Dec 2018 | Yellow | until 31 Jan 2019 | +7.9% |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Green | until 31 Dec 2018 | −9.2% |
| 31 Oct 2018 | Yellow | until 30 Nov 2018 | +1.8% |
| 31 Mar 2016 | Green | until 31 Oct 2018 | +33.4% |
| 29 Feb 2016 | Red | until 31 Mar 2016 | +6.7% |
| 29 Jan 2016 | Yellow | until 29 Feb 2016 | −0.1% |
| 30 Oct 2015 | Green | until 29 Jan 2016 | −6.3% |
| 30 Sep 2015 | Red | until 30 Oct 2015 | +8.5% |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Yellow | until 30 Sep 2015 | −2.6% |
| 31 Jan 2012 | Green | until 31 Aug 2015 | +61.6% |
| 30 Sep 2011 | Red | until 31 Jan 2012 | +16.8% |
| 31 Aug 2011 | Yellow | until 30 Sep 2011 | −6.9% |
| 30 Sep 2010 | Green | until 31 Aug 2011 | +8.7% |
| 31 Aug 2010 | Yellow | until 30 Sep 2010 | +9.0% |
| 30 Jul 2010 | Green | until 31 Aug 2010 | −4.5% |
| 30 Jun 2010 | Yellow | until 30 Jul 2010 | +6.8% |
| 30 Jun 2009 | Green | until 30 Jun 2010 | +14.4% |
| 31 Dec 2007 | Red | until 30 Jun 2009 | −34.8% |
| 30 Nov 2005 | Green | until 31 Dec 2007 | +20.9% |
How to read this
- Green. The S&P 500 is above its 10-month average. The rule does nothing.
- Yellow. The S&P 500 is below its 10-month average, but none of the four warning signs is on. The rule watches.
- Red. The S&P 500 is below its 10-month average and at least one warning sign is on. After a second red month-end in a row, or sooner if the market falls fast, the rule acts: in the tool, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 sleeves are moved to cash until it clears.
- The four warning signs come from unemployment, the yield curve, credit spreads and financial conditions. The exact tests are not published.
- No index levels are shown, only percentage changes and states.